AHCA Update; Payback Project
May. 9th, 2017 11:47 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
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thisfinecrewIndivisible, MoveOn, Town Hall Project, and the Women's March are collaborating on the Payback Project, to hold the 217 Republicans who voted for the AHCA accountable. https://www.paybackproject.org allows you to track "die-ins", town halls, and other protests, and there's a link to submit your own event.
Robert E. Slavkin's article, "The American Health Care Act: Now What Happens?" (May 7, 2017) is available at Lexology.com. Slavkin says that this bill is being considered under the reconsideration process rather than the normal legislative process. Reconciliation means the bill can be approved by a simple majority of the Senate (51 votes).
However, a bill being heard under reconciliation is subject to the "Byrd Rule": all aspects of the bill have to be related to the budget. Any part of the AHCA that is not budget-related can't be voted on by the Senate. The Senate budget committee can't analyze the bill until the Congressional Budget Office "scores" the bill (determines its effect on the deficit). The House was supposed to wait to vote until the CBO score, but they were in such a rush to get a "victory" that they didn't do this.
Slavkin says the process is expected to take "weeks, not days". He said that the 46 Democrats and the two non-Democrats who caucus with them are going to vote against whatever Senate bill emerges. Republican Senators Gardner (Colo), Murkowski (Alaska), Portman (Ohio), Capito (West Virginia), and Collins (Maine) might oppose the bill. Three Senators, Paul (Kentucky), Lee (Utah), and Cruz (Texas) are on record that they won't vote for any bill that doesn't repeal all aspects of PPACA. So if any three of these Republicans vote against the bill, the Senate can't pass it.
Even if the Senate passes a bill, unless it is identical to the House's text of the AHCA (which pretty much never happens) they have to negotiate a "reconciliation" bill that both Houses can agree on, which takes more time--and provides a chance for the whole thing to fall apart, or at least for the reconciliation bill to be not-as-bad.
The insurance and health care industries don't *like* PPACA, but they like the AHCA even less, so expect them to throw their weight around.
Robert E. Slavkin's article, "The American Health Care Act: Now What Happens?" (May 7, 2017) is available at Lexology.com. Slavkin says that this bill is being considered under the reconsideration process rather than the normal legislative process. Reconciliation means the bill can be approved by a simple majority of the Senate (51 votes).
However, a bill being heard under reconciliation is subject to the "Byrd Rule": all aspects of the bill have to be related to the budget. Any part of the AHCA that is not budget-related can't be voted on by the Senate. The Senate budget committee can't analyze the bill until the Congressional Budget Office "scores" the bill (determines its effect on the deficit). The House was supposed to wait to vote until the CBO score, but they were in such a rush to get a "victory" that they didn't do this.
Slavkin says the process is expected to take "weeks, not days". He said that the 46 Democrats and the two non-Democrats who caucus with them are going to vote against whatever Senate bill emerges. Republican Senators Gardner (Colo), Murkowski (Alaska), Portman (Ohio), Capito (West Virginia), and Collins (Maine) might oppose the bill. Three Senators, Paul (Kentucky), Lee (Utah), and Cruz (Texas) are on record that they won't vote for any bill that doesn't repeal all aspects of PPACA. So if any three of these Republicans vote against the bill, the Senate can't pass it.
Even if the Senate passes a bill, unless it is identical to the House's text of the AHCA (which pretty much never happens) they have to negotiate a "reconciliation" bill that both Houses can agree on, which takes more time--and provides a chance for the whole thing to fall apart, or at least for the reconciliation bill to be not-as-bad.
The insurance and health care industries don't *like* PPACA, but they like the AHCA even less, so expect them to throw their weight around.
