Resource: Which Republican Senators Are Most Likely To Fight Trump?

[tanaqui]

At polling analysis website FiveThiryEight, Nate Silver has carried out an analysis of which which Republican Senators are most likely to fight Trump, and which Democrats are most likely to work with him. As Silver points out:

[D]efections of just two to three Republican senators could block Trump from confirming his cabinet, making successful Supreme Court appointments, or passing new pieces of legislation.

Silver bases his analysis on how closely senators are aligned with Trump on policy issues, whether they endorsed Trump, and how much support Trump received in their home states -- and what impact that may have on their own re-election.

Republican senators most likely to defy Trump are: Collins (ME), Heller (NV), McCain (AZ), Portman (OH), Murkowski (AK), Flake (AZ), Lee (UT) and Paul (KY).

Democrat senators most likely to side with Trump are: Heitkamp (ND), Manchin WV) and Donnelly (IN), together with Campbell, if he wins the Louisiana runoff.

You can read the full results here.

Comments

[slashmarks]

Thanks for the link, I've posted another one with excerpt on tumblr.

[executrix]

Even back when a Trump *nomination* was just a horrible dream, norms of civility and collegiality had already been destroyed. Even if there was a possibility that Republicans in Congress would feel some loyalty to their President, Trump drove a stake through its heart by disavowing any obligations to the Republican Party. I'm not even sure when the pretense of an obligation to serve the public disappeared.

The current Congressional norm is "every man for himself" (inclusive language doesn't seem very relevant in this context). If Trump says "repeal PPACA," a legislator who owes his soul to the company store insurance industry is going to be more loyal to his paymasters than to the president.

Back when tax rates were high, it was easy to get rich people to like you by promising to cut their taxes. Now that tax rates are low (I know it doesn't feel that way if you're paying a lot of FICA tax, but that's not an issue for rich people)this isn't much of a way to make friends and influence donors. And when the only people who are subject to estate tax are multimillionaires with REALLY bad lawyers, moaning about the "death tax" doesn't raise much enthusiasm either.

[bridgetmkennitt]

(I think you mean NV instead of BV for Heller)

I'm pretty excited to see Heller up there because I'm in Nevada and I've been leaving voicemails at his DC office. Nevada went blue this election cycle and kept Reid's Democratic Senate seat by voting in Cortez Masto (first Latina to serve in the Senate), so I'm hoping he's going to think real hard about opposing Trump, and then oppose him.

[tanaqui]

Typo fixed. :-)

And fingers crossed that Heller pays attention to those voicemails and does actually oppose Trump, at least some of the time.