Resource: Which Republican Senators Are Most Likely To Fight Trump?

[tanaqui]

At polling analysis website FiveThiryEight, Nate Silver has carried out an analysis of which which Republican Senators are most likely to fight Trump, and which Democrats are most likely to work with him. As Silver points out:

[D]efections of just two to three Republican senators could block Trump from confirming his cabinet, making successful Supreme Court appointments, or passing new pieces of legislation.

Silver bases his analysis on how closely senators are aligned with Trump on policy issues, whether they endorsed Trump, and how much support Trump received in their home states -- and what impact that may have on their own re-election.

Republican senators most likely to defy Trump are: Collins (ME), Heller (NV), McCain (AZ), Portman (OH), Murkowski (AK), Flake (AZ), Lee (UT) and Paul (KY).

Democrat senators most likely to side with Trump are: Heitkamp (ND), Manchin WV) and Donnelly (IN), together with Campbell, if he wins the Louisiana runoff.

You can read the full results here.

Summary of research re: foreign donations to US non-profits

[tanaqui]

Reposted from rydra_wong:

(Based on consultation with a British lawyer and his consultations with an American colleague.)

Basically, anything that's registered as a 501(c)(3) non-profit is fine.

501(c)(4) organizations are entitled to do direct political campaigning and lobbying of specific kinds, for which they are not permitted to use funds from people who are not US citizens or naturalized.

It doesn't necessarily rule out the organization accepting foreign donations, but they should have a separate "compliance account" that foreign donations go into so that they're not used for funding work that's "political"(in the strictly-defined sense here).

In practice, a lot of 501(c)(4) organizations are set up with a sibling 501(c)(3) foundation (e.g. the ACLU Foundation) that does stuff which is not directly political, e.g. litigation, public education. So it seems like the best route for foreigners who want to donate in these cases is probably to donate directly to the 501(c)3.

I'd imagine that large organizations like the ACLU must surely have an internal mechanism for funneling foreign donations to the right bit, but right now they're obviously swamped so attempts to clarify via e-mail have been unsuccessful so far.

Original post at https://rydra-wong.dreamwidth.org/461923.html

Women's March on Washington, Jan. 21

[lynnenne]

 Buses are leaving from cities all across the United States, and even a few from Canada.

Map here.